December 13th weather

Crazy for Crotons

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29/06/09
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If the current long range GFS weather model holds true, December 1989 type cold will be making a Florida visit on December 13th or thereabout. When I read this today, my jaw hit the ground. This is still 9 days out so things could change but consider this a potential early warning. Sorry to throw a weather thread on here but when 3 well known national weather services all mention this scenario, it makes me a little nervous.
 
Get used to it. This is going to be our weather for the next 10 to 15 years. There are all sorts of climatological studies that show the weather cycles. Some go in 50 year patterns, but the most widely regarded as accurate go in 15 to 20 year cycles. The current consensus is that we are around 5 years into the current cycle. I'm giving serious thought to moving further south, much further south.

Here's one study and you can Google hundreds more, but the basic premise of cooler weather for many years to come is in most of them. (Well, not the one written by Al Gore, though.)
 
Bring it on! I planted a few Crotons in diffrent areas of the garden this weekend. Looking for a good mi-cro-climate area for future plantings.
 
From MWS Jacksonville...."A PEEK AT A 12Z GFS SOUNDING
INDICATED AN 850 MB TEMP OF -10C LATE MON! ECMWF IS NOT TOO
DIFFERENT." 15F is just a number I threw out there but if 0C is 32F, what's -10C? Not good.
 
OK, thanks, but I was looking for a source to follow - what's "MWS Jacksonville"?
- is that from NOAA's forecast discussion maybe?
- or from the STORM2K website??
I like to keep an eye on these winter fronts too, so just looking for another source to watch...

BTW a real easy and quick (and precise) mental conversion for C temps is to double the C temp, subtract 10% then add 32 to get the F temp...
-10C x 2 = -20 less 10% = -18 then add 32 to get 14F so you were very close :)
 
Just wanted to let people know that Harbor Freight is having a sale on greenhouses until 12/31/10 ....
I picked up the 10x12ft for $702.39 out the door.
Moose, those are a real deal for the money - is that your first one?
Here's what I did with mine to provide better ventilation during our hot humid summers, plus I like the extra height inside...
The deck blocks and boards also give it some much needed extra stability, besides keeping that steel base plate off the wet ground...
The second photo shows my winter prep...
 

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Hey I was just sharing my own formula for quickly and accurately converting C temps to F temps... :) :rolleyes:


It was not a comment on your formula, that is most helpful. My comment was meant to convey that frozen is frozen. I have been ice fishing in 12 F weather and the fish are usually frozen solid at that temp in about 1/2 an hour. :)
 
It was not a comment on your formula, that is most helpful. My comment was meant to convey that frozen is frozen. I have been ice fishing in 12 F weather and the fish are usually frozen solid at that temp in about 1/2 an hour. :)

Why are we now talking about frozen fish? Jeeze. Hey, will a moose eat a fish if one presents itself?:eek:

It won't be long now until spring is in the air, and I'm slapping on 15-20 air layers every evening.:)
 
Better news that the brutal 1980's type cold may not be coming after all. Here's this morning's discussion from the NWS Melbourne, Fl.

GFS/ECMWF MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE STORM TRACK AND
HIGH AMPLITUDE OF ITS ACCOMPANYING SHORT WAVE TROF...THOUGH GFS IS A
LITTLE FASTER AN MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SFC LOW. BOTH MODELS...
HOWEVER...HAVE MADE A LARGE SHIFT AWAY FROM THE COLD AIR OUTBREAK
THAT THEY WERE SUGGESTING 24HRS AGO.
THE 09/00Z RUNS NOW INDICATE
THE H85 0C ISOTHERM NO FURTHER S THAN THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WHEREAS
THE 08/00Z RUNS TOOK IT CLEAR DOWN TO THE FL KEYS. CORRESPONDING
MEX MOS TEMPS HAVE WARMED AROUND 10F DEG MON/TUE. IT APPEARS THE
MODELS ARE KEYING ON A STRONG SRN JET OVER FL (MAX WINDS +140KTS BY
12Z MON) THAT PUSHES THE BASE OF THE TROF MORE EWD THAN PREV MODEL
RUNS...THUS PREVENTING THE CRUX OF THE COLD AIR TO ADVECT MUCH
FURTHER S THAN THE FL PANHANDLE.
 
Ron, As of tonite, it is supposed to be sunny with a high of 78 on Sat. in Ft. Myers. Could not be any better!
 
Ron, this kind of cold is nothing especially compared to last year. I deal with freezes of the 30-32F range every few years and nothing aside from ultra tropicals get damaged or killed. Of course, 35F for you guys tends to inflict more damage because your plants aren't as hardened off. The worst that comes from 35F is some partial or total croton defoliation but nothing the plant won't grow out of come spring.
 
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